ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Q1 2025

Despite ongoing uncertainties about the resumption of economic growth, domestic companies are optimistic about the upcoming year based on their hiring plans. In the first quarter of 2025, 35% of Hungarian employers plan to expand their workforce, while 21% anticipate reductions, according to the latest Manpower Hungary Employment Outlook Survey published today.

The ManpowerGroup conducted its quarterly survey across 42 countries, involving over 40,000 employers. In Hungary, 525 employers were surveyed to gauge their hiring intentions for Q1 2025.

The seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook (NEO) derived from employer responses averaged +14%, a 3-point decrease from the previous quarter but a 4-point increase year-on-year.

“Although the latest GDP data still reflects a recession, over one-third of employers plan to increase their workforce at the beginning of the year, signaling an optimistic outlook for the coming year among domestic businesses,” said Tamás Fehér, Managing Director of Manpower in Hungary, Croatia, and Slovenia. “Many companies are already anticipating a revival in their markets, although this trend is far from uniform. A promising sign is the significant improvement in expectations among players in the raw materials and manufacturing industries over the past year. However, companies in the automotive sector, for example, continue to anticipate declines.”

The +14% growth indicator is an average figure, with significant regional differences. Employers in Western Hungary (+21%), Northern Hungary (+18%), and Budapest (+15%) have expectations above the national average. Other regions anticipate more moderate growth, while Southern Hungary (-5%) stands out negatively for the second consecutive quarter, with more employers forecasting layoffs than new hires.

There are also notable differences across sectors. Workforce growth is expected to significantly exceed the average in raw materials and manufacturing (+26%) and finance and real estate (+23%). Growth in consumer goods and services (+13%) and information technology (+12%) is expected to align with the average. Moderate increases are projected for communications services (+9%) and healthcare and life sciences (+6%). Declines are expected in logistics and the automotive sector (-5%), where the indicator has dropped 20 points year-on-year, reflecting the current challenges facing the European automotive industry. A net reduction is also expected in the energy and utilities sector (-4%).

Across company sizes, workforce expansion intentions are observed in all categories. However, among micro and small businesses, the growth rate (6-8%) remains well below the average.

Internationally, labor market movement expectations remain unchanged compared to the previous quarter. The indicator currently stands at a high of 25%. Among the 42 countries surveyed, only Argentina (-1%) anticipates a decline, while Hong Kong (+6%), Chile (+8%), and Israel (+8%) foresee growth well below the global average due to economic or political challenges. In Europe, expectations are slightly below average, with the broadest growth plans seen in Switzerland and the Netherlands (NEO: +29%), the UK and Belgium (+28%). Outside Europe, the highest workforce expansions are anticipated in India (+40%), the USA (+34%), South Africa, and Costa Rica (+31%).

In the customizable section of the survey, companies were asked about the difficulty of filling vacancies due to a lack of qualified applicants. While 79% of Hungarian companies reported some challenges in this area, only 21% faced significant difficulties. Workforce shortages are most prevalent in manufacturing roles and are also widespread in engineering and IT positions.

To address the shortage of skilled workers, companies primarily rely on upskilling existing employees and increasing wages, with 30% using each method. Advertising more actively is employed by 21%, while flexible work arrangements (e.g., part-time, flexible hours) and remote work are implemented by 20% and 16%, respectively. Automation and artificial intelligence are currently used by only 12% of companies to mitigate workforce shortages.